![]() Finally, we describe some approaches to improve medium-run projections. In particular, the five-year projections of real GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate are investigated. Then we analyse the performance of mediumterm forecasts for Austria to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the typical approach. In this paper we give an overview of currently used methods for medium-term macroeconomic projections. It might be argued, however, that for medium-run projections endogenous growth models might be better suited. In particular, currently medium-term projections are mostly based on the neoclassical Solow growth model with an aggregate production function with labour, capital and exogenous technological progress. However, the current practice of performing medium-term economic projections is unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view as the applied methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public finances. Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. ![]() This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR).
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